India's chances of reaching the ICC World Test Championship (WTC Final 2025) depend on Pakistan's upcoming two-match Test series against South Africa. Pakistan can boost India's hopes of beating South Africa in their series if the Rohit Sharma-led team fails to defeat Australia in the next two Tests.
Four teams – Australia, India, South Africa and Sri Lanka – are competing for the two places in the World Test Championship final, scheduled to be played at Lord's next year. Australia, India and South Africa are strong contenders, but Sri Lanka still have an outside chance of securing their final debut at the World Trade Centre.
South Africa currently tops the 2023-25 World Trade Center rankings
South Africa currently top the 2023-25 WTC standings and have the opportunity to strengthen their position with two home Tests against Pakistan. Meanwhile, India faces a tough challenge as their qualification hopes depend on wins in the last two Tests against Australia in Melbourne and Sydney.
India required a 4-1 win in the 2024-25 BGT series to advance to the 2025 WTC final. The five-match Test series is currently tied at 1-1. Team India's qualification chances were severely affected by a loss in the second Test to Australia in Adelaide and a draw in the third Test at the Gabba in Brisbane.
India have been unbeaten in the Melbourne and Sydney Tests since January 2012
India are unbeaten in Tests held in Melbourne and Sydney since January 2012. Wins in the remaining two matches will guarantee India a place in the next WTC final. However, a draw in either match would force them to rely on Pakistan's win over South Africa to keep their qualification hopes alive.
India can take their points percentage (PCT) to 60.53% if they win the next two Test matches. It will be impossible for Australia to get the better of them, even if they whitewash Sri Lanka in their next series. However, if India wins only one match and loses the other, its PCT percentage will drop to 55.26%.
South Africa currently tops the WTC rankings with a PCT percentage of 63.33%. However, a 0-2 defeat to Pakistan would reduce their PCT percentage to a maximum of 52.78%. If Pakistan get this result, India could qualify for the WTC final even with just one win in their last two Tests, with South Africa trailing India.
India's next Test match is scheduled to begin on December 26
To qualify, India needs another win, which is to beat Pakistan 2-0 over South Africa, and beat Australia 2-0 over Sri Lanka. In this scenario, India would end up with a PCT of at least 55.26%, South Africa would fall to 52.78%, and Australia would still come out on top with a PCT of at least 57.01%.
The Rohit Sharma-led team's next match against Australia will start on Thursday, December 26 in Melbourne. Meanwhile, Pakistan will face South Africa in Centurion, and their performance will be crucial to India's chances.
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